Canadian Election And US Relations: The Trump Factor

Aria Freeman

4 min read

Post on Apr 30, 2025

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The relationship between Canada and the United States has always held significant sway over Canadian elections, but the presidency of Donald Trump injected an unprecedented level of uncertainty and volatility. The 2019 Canadian federal election, in particular, vividly demonstrated the profound impact of the "Canadian Election and US Relations: The Trump Factor," reshaping the economic anxieties, foreign policy priorities, and public discourse within Canada. This article will analyze how Trump's presidency significantly altered the Canadian political landscape and the bilateral relationship between the two North American neighbours.

Trump's Impact on the Canadian Economy and its Electoral Implications

The Trump administration's trade policies cast a long shadow over the Canadian economy, significantly influencing the 2019 election.

• Trade Tensions and NAFTA renegotiation (USMCA): The renegotiation of NAFTA, culminating in the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), created considerable uncertainty and anxiety for Canadian businesses. Trump's aggressive negotiating tactics and threats of tariffs on Canadian goods led to:

  • Significant job losses in sectors like agriculture and automotive manufacturing.
  • Increased uncertainty regarding future trade relationships with the US.
  • A palpable shift in voter sentiment towards parties offering stronger protectionist stances or those promising a more robust negotiation approach with the United States. Statistics on job losses in key sectors impacted by trade uncertainty would provide concrete evidence of this impact.

• Energy Sector Uncertainty: Trump's ambivalent approach to the Keystone XL pipeline and his administration's broader stance on environmental regulations created instability within Canada's energy sector.

  • Investment in Canadian oil and gas projects declined due to the uncertain regulatory environment south of the border.
  • Job losses in Alberta and Saskatchewan, key energy-producing provinces, fuelled resentment and impacted voting patterns. The electoral results in these provinces could be cited as evidence.
  • Political parties tailored their platforms to address the concerns of the energy sector, showcasing varying degrees of support for pipeline projects and navigating the complexities of environmental regulations and US energy policies.

• Investment and Confidence: The overall uncertainty generated by Trump's economic policies negatively impacted foreign investment in Canada and business confidence.

  • Businesses delayed investment decisions due to the unpredictable nature of US trade policy.
  • Economic growth slowed in certain sectors.
  • Parties responded by outlining strategies to attract foreign investment and bolster economic resilience in the face of external shocks stemming from US policy.

Shifting Foreign Policy Priorities in the Canadian Election

Trump's unconventional foreign policy significantly impacted Canada's approach to international relations and shaped the 2019 election.

• National Security Concerns: Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his fluctuating approach to NATO raised serious concerns about Canada's national security and its role within key alliances.

  • This led to increased discussions regarding Canadian defense spending and the need to diversify alliances.
  • Political parties addressed these concerns by outlining their positions on strengthening international collaborations and maintaining strong ties with key allies, while also hedging against potential disruptions in US foreign policy.

• Bilateral Diplomacy and Relationship Dynamics: The Trump era witnessed strained US-Canada relations, marked by several high-profile diplomatic disagreements (e.g., disputes over lumber tariffs, steel and aluminum tariffs).

  • These incidents negatively impacted the public perception of the US-Canada relationship.
  • Parties highlighted differing approaches to managing the relationship with the US – some emphasizing the need for a strong and assertive stance, while others advocated for a more conciliatory approach.

• International Cooperation and Multilateralism: Trump's rejection of multilateralism forced Canada to reassess its commitment to international cooperation.

  • Canada's increased engagement in multilateral organizations outside the US sphere reflected its commitment to international rules-based order.
  • Political parties showcased distinct approaches towards multilateralism, highlighting their commitment to international cooperation and engagement with allies to mitigate the risks associated with US unilateralism.

The Role of Public Opinion and Media Coverage

Public opinion polls consistently revealed anxiety about the impact of Trump's policies on the Canadian economy and its relationship with the US. Media coverage played a crucial role in shaping public perception and influencing voter choices. News outlets extensively covered the trade disputes, energy policy disagreements, and diplomatic tensions, framing the election as a referendum on how best to navigate the uncertain landscape created by the Trump administration.

Conclusion:

The 2019 Canadian federal election was deeply impacted by the "Canadian Election and US Relations: The Trump Factor." Trump's policies created economic instability, forced a reassessment of foreign policy priorities, and fuelled public anxieties. Understanding this influence is vital for comprehending the election’s outcome and predicting future dynamics in US-Canada relations. To delve deeper into this critical period, further research into the party platforms, official government reports, and economic data from the era will yield valuable insights into the lasting effects of this pivotal period in US-Canada relations. Continue your exploration of Canadian Election and US Relations by examining the specific policy proposals put forth by the various parties during the 2019 election.